Impact Of Future Climate Change Research Articles

The Impact of Climate Change on Health Services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematised Review and Thematic Analysis

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on health services as categorized by the WHO’s Building Blocks for creating Climate-Resilient Health Systems. Objective: The objective was to conduct a systematized review of the published literature concerning the impact of climate change, using a thematic analysis approach to address our aim and identify areas for further research. Design: A search was conducted on 8 February 2022 using the Embase and PubMed research databases. Peer-reviewed scientific studies that were published in English from 2012 to 2022, which described at least one report concerning the impact of climate change on health services in LMICs, were included. Studies were organized based on their key characteristics, which included the date of publication, objective, method, limitations, participants, and geographical focus. The Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) was used to assess the risk of bias in the included studies. Results: Twenty-three studies were included in this review. Five areas of health services which align with the WHO building blocks framework were impacted by climate change. These health service areas included: (1) Service Delivery, (2) Human Resources, (3) Health Finance, (4) Healthcare Products and Technology, and (5) Leadership and Governance. However, research concerning the impact of climate change on health information systems, which is part of the WHO building blocks framework, did not feature in our study. The climatic effects were divided into three themes: meteorological effects, extreme weather events, and general. The research in this study found that climate change had a detrimental impact on a variety of health services, with service delivery being the most frequently reported. The risk of bias varied greatly between studies. Conclusions: Climate change has negatively impacted health services in a variety of different ways, and without further actions, this problem is likely to worsen. The WHO building blocks have provided a useful lens through which to review health services. We built an aligned framework to describe our findings and to support future climate change impact assessments in this area. We propose that further research concerning the impact of climate change on health information systems would be valuable, as well as further education and responsible policy changes to help build resilience in health services affected by climate change.

Root proliferation adaptation strategy improved maize productivity in the US Great Plains: Insights from crop simulation model under future climate change

Adaptation measures are essential for reducing the impact of future climate risks on agricultural production systems. The present study focuses on implementing an adaptation strategy to mitigate the impact of future climate change on rainfed maize production in the Eastern Kansas River Basin (EKSRB), an important rainfed maize-producing region in the US Great Plains, which faces potential challenges of future climate risks due to a significant east-to-west aridity gradient. We used a calibrated CERES-Maize crop model to evaluate the impacts of baseline climate conditions (1985–2014), late-term future climate scenarios (under the SSP245 emission pathway and CMIP6 models), and a novel root proliferation adaptation strategy on regional maize yield and rainfall productivity. Changes in the plant root system by increasing the root density could lead to yield benefits, especially under drought conditions. Therefore, we modified the governing equation of soil root growth in the CERES-Maize model to reflect the genetic influence of a maize cultivar to improve root density by proliferation. Under baseline conditions, maize yield values ranged from 6522 to 12,849 kgha−1, with a regional average value of 9270 kgha−1. Projections for the late-term scenario indicate a substantial decline in maize yield (36 % to 50 %) and rainfall productivity (25 % to 42 %). Introducing a hypothetical maize cultivar by employing root proliferation as an adaptation strategy resulted in a 27 % increase in regional maize yield, and a 28 % increase in rainfall productivity compared to the reference cultivar without adaptation. We observed an indication of spatial dependency of maize yield and rainfall productivity on the regional precipitation gradient, with counties towards the east having an implicit advantage over those in the west. These findings offer valuable insights for the US Great Plains maize growers and breeders, guiding strategic decisions to adapt rainfed maize production to the region's impending challenges posed by climate change.

Analysis of climate change impacts on the biogeographical patterns of species-specific productivity of socioeconomically important edible fungi in Mediterranean forest ecosystems

In Mediterranean forests, many species of fungi produce fruiting bodies every autumn, some of which are of great social and economic interest as NTFPs. In addition, these fungi are an essential part of the biodiversity network that ensures the proper functioning of natural ecosystems and that is currently in check due to global change. Therefore, understanding the biogeographic patterns of species-specific fungal productivity is fundamental to anticipate possible changes in the socioeconomic value of our forests and to understand the role they play in the functioning of ecosystems in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In this study we estimate the future impact of climate change (in Catalonia region, between 2023 and 2100) on five fungal species with high socioeconomic interest in a broad bioclimatic gradient representative of the Mediterranean basin using high resolution at the landscape scale. To achieve this, we use predictive models based on machine learning algorithms and a fungal database resulting from the sampling of more than 100 permanent sampling plots over 20 years. We estimate that current and future productivity patterns differ among species, under different climate change scenarios and bioclimatic regions. Our results suggest that optimal productivity areas may be shifted to higher elevations, making those species with higher productivity at higher elevations the most affected by climate change. This would mean that some species with high socioeconomic value, such as Lactarius deliciosus and Boletus edulis, could be negatively affected in their total productivity in the study area. This study highlights the need to anticipate the potential effects of climate change on fungal productivity and in particular on high socioeconomic value species and to develop management policies oriented to maintain the important role of fungi in natural ecosystems.

Plastic film mulching increases crop yields and reduces global warming potential under future climate change

Identifying suitable cropping systems and planting areas with high yields and low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to adapt to climate change is essential for sustainable agricultural development. The DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model and the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset were used to evaluate the impact of climate scenarios on the crop yields and global warming potential (GWP) of maize, winter wheat, and potato under plastic film mulching (PM) and without mulching (CK) systems on the Loess Plateau for 2020–2100. The result showed that the DNDC model could simulate crop yields and carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane emissions (adjusted R2 > 0.55, normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 0.32). Under multiple emission scenarios, the yields of maize and winter wheat increased linearly with time (p < 0.05), the GWP decreased linearly with time (p < 0.05), and the coefficients of variation of both were lower for the PM than CK, indicating that the impact of future climate change on PM system was small and can achieve synergy between food security and carbon reduction. The results of regional divergence characteristics suggested that areas with precipitation below 400 mm were suitable for maize cultivation, especially the PM system, while areas with precipitation above 400 mm were suitable for winter wheat cultivation – both of which could achieve the goals of high yield and low GHG emissions. This study presents an overview of spatiotemporal changes in production and ecological effects, providing a basis for developing agricultural management practices and cultivation areas to address climate change, and could promote the development of dryland agroecosystems in China in a green and sustainable direction.

Determination of crop water requirements and potential evapotranspiration for sustainable coffee farming in response to future climate change scenarios

Climate change (CC) is causing a significant threat to agriculture, a sector complicatedly tied to natural resources. Changes in precipitation patterns, atmospheric water content, and rising temperatures intensely affect global agriculture, especially in tropical regions. In this intense CC scenario, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and crop water requirement (CWR) are critical components of agricultural water management. This study evaluates the future impact of CC on precipitation, CWR, and PET in different provinces of Thailand's northern and northeastern regions. Three bias correction methods (Delta (DT), Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM), and Quantile Mapping (QM)) were employed for precipitation downscaling from the CanESM5 CMIP6-GCM across selected 13 coffee farms with different coffee species. Arabica and Robusta coffee were carefully selected for this analysis. The DT method demonstrated superiority, exhibiting lower RMSE and higher correlation coefficients than EQM and QM. Farm-specific assessments illuminated water demand's complex dynamics during critical growth stages, showcasing variable CWR and PET. During the blooming stage in N-F1, CWR ranged from 16.7 to 33.7 mm/stage, highlighting the variability in water needs. Projected CC impacts on Arabica and Robusta coffee farms in Chiang Rai and Sisaket presented challenges, emphasizing farm-specific strategies to address potential water deficits or surpluses during critical growth phases. Projected 2023, 2028, and 2033 precipitation demonstrated incongruities with CWR and PET. The findings emphasize the crucial role of farm-specific adaptive strategies in mitigating the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on coffee cultivation.

Impact of Climate Change on Global Security and Cooperation in Mexico

Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate impact of climate change on global security and cooperation in Mexico&#x0D; Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries.&#x0D; Findings: Climate change exacerbates security risks in Mexico through extreme weather events, economic instability, and social tensions. This poses threats to food and water security, increases vulnerability to natural disasters, and fuels conflicts over resources. To address these challenges, Mexico collaborates with international partners, develops adaptation strategies, and invests in renewable energy. Cooperation at national and global levels is crucial to build resilience and mitigate the impacts of climate change on security.&#x0D; Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Realism theory, complex interdependence theory &amp; environmental security theory may be used to anchor future studies impact of climate change on global security and cooperation in Mexico. Governments and international organizations should prioritize climate diplomacy as a cornerstone of foreign policy. Governments should conduct climate-security risk assessments to identify vulnerable regions and potential hotspots.

Challenges and Opportunities of Digital Diplomacy and Cyberwarfare in Kenya

Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate challenges and opportunities of digital diplomacy and cyberwarfare&#x0D; Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries.&#x0D; Findings: Climate change exacerbates security risks in Mexico through extreme weather events, economic instability, and social tensions. This poses threats to food and water security, increases vulnerability to natural disasters, and fuels conflicts over resources. To address these challenges, Mexico collaborates with international partners, develops adaptation strategies, and invests in renewable energy. Cooperation at national and global levels is crucial to build resilience and mitigate the impacts of climate change on security.&#x0D; Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Realism theory, constructivism theory &amp; cybersecurity deterrence theory may be used to anchor future studies impact of climate change on global security and cooperation in Mexico. Invest in capacity building for diplomats and foreign service personnel in the field of digital diplomacy and cybersecurity. Implement robust national and international cybersecurity legislation that includes provisions specific to the protection of diplomatic communications and infrastructure.

Ecophysiological traits of seedlings from different accessions of Stipa tenacissima along a climatic gradient

Predicting the future impact of climate change on Stipa tenacissima steppes is of paramount importance to prevent desertification. From this perspective, we selected seven populations, covering a rainfall range from 100 to 600 mm/year at the sites of seed collection, and we grew the seedlings at the same site. Gas exchange measurements of CO2, light response curves, chlorophyll content and isotopic analysis were investigated. Thala and Valencia populations displayed a contrasted gas exchange response. Both populations were subjected to A-Ci curve analysis. No significant difference was detected between these two different populations in the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) and the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax). Stipa tenacissima exhibited a variable response in relation to different light intensities. Photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence parameters proved to be significantly different among populations in response to light intensities. All populations exhibited similar chlorophyll content. The isotopic analysis highlighted a different carbon and nitrogen isotopic composition (δ13C and δ15N) and carbon content © among populations. Mesic populations presented a higher gas exchange activity and light response. The xeric populations performed a photosynthesis adjustment along with minimizing chlorophyll content. Under climate change, S. tenacissima limits productivity, which may lead to desertification.

Potential impact of future climate change on grassland cover in Burkina Faso.

The objective of this study was to analyse the potential impact of future climate change on grassland cover in Burkina Faso. MODIS NDVI 250m time series were used to monitor changes in grassland over 2000-2022. The random forest regression (RFR) model was fit by regressing reference data of grassland cover against current climatic and other environmental predictors to predict the current grassland cover map (2022). Projected climate model data of CMIP6 used under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios were integrated into the fit RFR model to predict future change. The results revealed that grassland areas were largely dominated by non-significant productivity change (55%) during 2000-2022. In this period, grassland area knew more increased productivity (35%) than decrease (10%). Burkina Faso is predicted to face more decreased areas of grassland cover than increase by 2061-2080 under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios. The findings of this study can help to set up appropriate adaptation measures to combat climate change in Burkina Faso.

Climate and biodiversity change constrain the flow of cultural ecosystem services to people: A case study modeling birding across Africa under future climate scenarios

Global change is currently impacting ecosystems and their contributions to people (i.e. ecosystem services). These impacts have consequences for societies and human well-being, especially in Africa. Historically, efforts have focused on assessing global change from a social or biophysical perspective, treating them as separate entities. Yet, our understanding of impacts to social-ecological systems remains limited, particularly in the Global South, due to a lack of data, tools, and approaches accounting for social and ecological aspects of ecosystem services. This is especially relevant for cultural ecosystem services as they are less tangible. We use a simple indicator and important provider of a multitude of cultural ecosystem services, birding, to understand how climate, biodiversity, and land use change will impact cultural ecosystem services across Africa. We explore how emerging tools and data can overcome limitations in mapping and modeling cultural ecosystem services, particularly in analyzing human preferences and behavior at large spatiotemporal scales and in data-poor regions. Leveraging crowdsourced data from eBird and using machine learning techniques we map and model recreational birding to assess the underlying social-ecological relationships and the impact of future climate and environmental change. We show that bird species richness, protected areas, accessibility, and max temperature contribute most to birding suitability across the continent. Further, we show spatial shifts in the suitability of birding under three future climate scenarios (SSP126, 370, and 585). Models suggest climate and biodiversity change will increasingly constrain the flow of birding related cultural ecosystem services across Africa. This has implications for human-nature interactions, development of countries, management of protected areas, and overall human well-being in the future. More generally, we highlight opportunities for crowdsourced datasets and machine learning to integrate non-material ecosystem services in models and thus, enhance the understanding of future impacts to ecosystem services and human well-being.

A systematic review on the potential impact of future climate change on India’s biodiversity using species distribution model (SDM) studies: trends, and data gaps

A systematic review on the potential impact of future climate change on India’s biodiversity using species distribution model (SDM) studies: trends, and data gaps

Evaluating vegetation vulnerability under compound dry and hot conditions using vine copula across global lands

With global warming, climate extremes are intensifying, particularly compound dry and hot events (CDHEs), which would severely impact vegetation growth. However, quantitatively evaluating vegetation vulnerability to CDHEs remains challenging in global lands. A conditional probability model was constructed using the vine copula function to evaluate responses of vegetation to CDHEs based on the Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index (SZI), the Standardized Temperature Index (STI), and the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI). The results show that vegetation growth is more susceptible to dry and hot conditions in arid and semi-arid regions than in sub-humid and humid regions. In terms of vegetation types, shrubs, savanna, grass, and crops are more susceptible to CDHEs than to individual dry or hot events, especially in water-limited regions. In arid regions, the vegetation vulnerability for open shrubs, closed shrubs, savanna, and grass under extreme CDHEs would correspondingly increase by 45%, 23%, 15%, and 12% compared with dry conditions, indicating the necessity to consider both dry and hot conditions simultaneously when evaluating vegetation dynamics to climatic extremes. In semi-arid and sub-humid regions, broadleaf forests show higher vulnerability to CDHEs than needleleaf forests. However, evergreen broadleaf forests show the lowest vulnerability and higher resistance to CDHEs in humid regions. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-based uncertainty decomposition results show that copula combination sets in vine copula trees and vine copula structures are the two main uncertainty sources, accounting for about 60%. Despite with uncertainty, the modeling results show consistent vegetation loss probability patterns simulated with different structures of the vine copula model, indicating the robustness and reliability of the results. The findings provide a profound comprehension of ecosystems’ response mechanisms to compound extremes, which are essential to developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies against the impact of future climate change.

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

Abstract. The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p&lt;0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m3s-1a-1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m3s-1a-1 (13 ± 10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge Using Hydrological Modeling in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge Using Hydrological Modeling in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Arsenic distribution and partitioning in multiple media in a typical catchment in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau: A comparison between freshwater and saltwater lakes

Arsenic (As) has been widely detected in surface media on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP); however, the differences in the As distribution and partitioning characteristics between freshwater and saltwater lakes remain poorly understood. To determine the distribution and partitioning characteristics of As, multimedia environmental samples were collected from a typical small watershed consisting of a river, wetland, and both freshwater and saltwater lakes on the QTP. Results showed that freshwater systems, represented by Hurleg Lake, were high in particulate arsenic (PAs) and low in dissolved arsenic (DAs), whereas the saltwater system represented by Tosen Lake, exhibited the reverse distribution. This discrepancy in As distribution was primarily attributed to evaporation enrichment, competitive adsorption of HCO3− and pH variations, as suggested by correlation analysis and stable isotopic composition of water. In the stratified Tosen Lake, an increasing trend of DAs in the water column was observed, potentially driven by the reductive dissolution of Fe (hydr)oxides and bacterial sulfate reduction in the anoxic bottom hypolimnion. Conversely, Hurleg Lake maintained oxic conditions with stable DAs concentrations. Notably, PAs was elevated in the bottom layer of both lakes, possibly due to uptake/adsorption by biogenic particles, as indicated by high levels of chl.α and suspended particulate matter. These findings offer insights into the potential future impact of climate change on As mobilization/redistribution in arid plateau lakes, with implications for management policies that regulate As pollution.

Impact of Future Climate Change on the Yield of Spring Maize and the Effect of Resilient Measures on it Under Different Parameters in the Major Agro-Ecosystems in China and Kenya

Impact of Future Climate Change on the Yield of Spring Maize and the Effect of Resilient Measures on it Under Different Parameters in the Major Agro-Ecosystems in China and Kenya

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow under Multiple Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper Reaches of the Tarim River in Northwest China

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two major factors that alter hydrological processes. The upper reaches of the Tarim River, situated in the northwest region of China, experience a dry and less rainy climate and are significantly influenced by human activities. This study comprehensively assessed the impacts of individual and combined climate changes and LUCCs on streamflow. Three general circulation models (GCMs) were utilized to predict future climate changes under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585). Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) was employed to predict future LUCC under three scenarios (i.e., ecological protection, historical trend, and farmland development). Streamflow for the period 2021–2050 was simulated using the calibrated MIKE SHE model with multiple scenarios. The results showed that from 2021 to 2050, increments in both average annual precipitation and average annual temperature under the three SSPs were predicted to lead to an increased streamflow. In comparison to the conditions observed in 2000, under three LUCC scenarios for 2030, the grassland area decreased by 1.04% to 1.21%, while the farmland area increased by 1.97% to 2.26%, resulting in reduced streamflow. The related changes analysis indicated that the variation in streamflow during winter is most significant, followed by spring. The study predicted that climate change would increase streamflow, while LUCC would decrease it. Due to the greater impact of LUCC, considering the combined effect of both factors, runoff would decrease. The contribution analysis indicated that climate change contributed between −7.16% and −18.66%, while LUCC contributed between 107.16% and 118.66%.

Enhancing Understanding of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria in West Africa Using the Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI) and the Bias-Corrected Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Data (CMIP6)

In sub-Saharan Africa, temperatures are generally conducive to malaria transmission, and rainfall provides mosquitoes with optimal breeding conditions. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa using community-based vector-borne disease models, TRIeste (VECTRI). This VECTRI model, based on bias-corrected data from the Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), was used to simulate malaria parameters, such as the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Due to the lack of data on confirmed malaria cases throughout West Africa, we first validated the forced VECTRI model with CMIP6 data in Senegal. This comparative study between observed malaria data from the National Malaria Control Program in Senegal (Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme, PNLP, PNLP) and malaria simulation data with the VECTRI (EIR) model has shown the ability of the biological model to simulate malaria transmission in Senegal. We then used the VECTRI model to reproduce the historical characteristics of malaria in West Africa and quantify the projected changes with two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The method adopted consists of first studying the climate in West Africa for a historical period (1950–2014), then evaluating the performance of VECTRI to simulate malaria over the same period (1950–2014), and finally studying the impact of projected climate change on malaria in a future period (2015–2100) according to the ssp245 ssp585 scenario. The results showed that low-latitude (southern) regions with abundant rainfall are the areas most affected by malaria transmission. Two transmission peaks are observed in June and October, with a period of high transmission extending from May to November. In contrast to regions with high latitudes in the north, semi-arid zones experience a relatively brief transmission period that occurs between August, September, and October, with the peak observed in September. Regarding projections based on the ssp585 scenario, the results indicate that, in general, malaria prevalence will gradually decrease in West Africa in the distant future. But the period of high transmission will tend to expand in the future. In addition, the shift of malaria prevalence from already affected areas to more suitable areas due to climate change is observed. Similar results were also observed with the ssp245 scenario regarding the projection of malaria prevalence. In contrast, the ssp245 scenario predicts an increase in malaria prevalence in the distant future, while the ssp585 scenario predicts a decrease. These findings are valuable for decision makers in developing public health initiatives in West Africa to mitigate the impact of this disease in the region in the context of climate change.

The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: A critical survey

AbstractThis survey reviews the literature about the possible impacts of climate change on the natural rate of interest (r*), an important yardstick for monetary policy. Prima facie, economic, and financial developments can lower r* in scenarios with increasing climate‐related damages and uncertainty that reduce productivity growth and raise precautionary savings. Orderly climate policies have a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to a carbon‐neutral economy and supporting a steady investment flow. We discuss the main models used to simulate the effects of climate change on r* and summarize the outcomes. However, in scenarios that assume innovations and investments induced by transition policies, r* could be affected positively. Overall, the downward effects of climate change on r* can be substantial, even considering the high degree of uncertainty about the outcomes, with tipping points and nonlinear effects aggravating the economic impacts. The downward pressure on r* will further challenge monetary policy in the long run, by limiting its policy space.This article is categorized under: Climate Economics &gt; Economics and Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change &gt; Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

Fluctuations of discharge and hydropower potential in the upper Amu Darya under the background of climate change

Study RegionUpper Amu Darya (UAD). Study FocusThe UAD has abundant hydropower potential (HP). This study focuses on the potential sites of small hydropower stations (sHPs) and explores the impact of future climate change on discharge and HP. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionThe conflict between water resources and hydropower in Central Asia is a key issue affecting regional development. Developing sHPs provides a new direction for alleviating energy shortages in Central Asia. Combining the hydrological model with the geographic information decision-making method, we have determined the potential sites for ten sHPs in the UAD and calculated the HP for each station. Based on future climate data from two shared socioeconomic pathways and four global climate models, we found that future precipitation and temperature are projected to increase, with precipitation increasing mainly in spring and winter. The average discharge will increase by 19.1∼36.6% in the near-term (2031–2050) and by 29.7∼106.8% in the long-term (2071–2090). In addition, climate change has significantly increased HP in winter, and the increase of HP in relatively high altitudes is higher than that in low altitudes. This implies that the HP development prospect of UAD is broad in future, but for sHPs construction schemes, it is necessary to further consider the impact on both environment and society.